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Demand For Refined Petroleum Products Pushes Capacity Enlargement In Nigeria’s Power Sector

Given the dimensions of demand for petroleum merchandise in both Nigeria and the broader ECOWAS region, the nation stands to realize important export revenues if it will increase downstream manufacturing. Nigeria’s four refineries, although they raised their capability utilisation charge considerably in 2014, stay low at around the 30% mark total, despite being allocated their full capability of 445,000 barrels per day (bpd) in crude. “The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) allocations of crude to the refineries are based mostly on installed capability, not operational throughput,” Idris Yusuf, head of refineries on the NNPC, told Heat Exchanger Series OBG. Were they to run at 80% of put in capability, the output would be sufficient to meet domestic demand, in keeping with funding firm BGL. Yet the nation still depends on imports for some 86% of its aggregate consumption of over 50m litres a day.

Low Efficiency
Of the 4 existing refineries, the 2 in Port Harcourt operate at the bottom efficiency. With respective capacities of 60,000 bpd and one hundred fifty,000 bpd, both refine crude from the Bonny terminal into premium motor spirit (PMS), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), twin-purpose kerosene (DPK), and automotive fuel and oil (Ago). Their mixed capacity utilisation of two.07% within the fourth quarter of 2013 improved only slightly to four.48% in December, in line with BGL analysis, as they regularly recovered from shut-ins caused by vandalism. “The major trigger of decrease output in 2013 was issues in sourcing crude to the Port Harcourt refinery,” Yusuf told OBG. “This has now been resolved and we count on increased output in 2014.”

The opposite two performed comparatively better. The 125,000-bpd refinery in Warri, which produces PMS alongside polypropylene and carbon black petrochemicals, supplied by Chevron’s Escravos terminal and to a lesser extent (some 20,000 bpd) from Shell Petroleum Growth Company’s Ughelli discipline, operated at 28.03% of put in capacity within the fourth quarter of 2013, rising to forty.41% by December of that yr. The only refinery within the north, in Kaduna, in the meantime, operated at 29.Fifty nine% of capacity within the fourth quarter of 2013, rising to 32.96% by December. The Kaduna unit, with a a hundred and ten,000-bpd capability and supplied via a 600-km pipeline from the south, is designed to handle imported heavy crudes. In complete, Nigeria’s refineries acquired 24% of their installed capability in crude in 2013, in line with BGL. Yet out of the country’s 2013 daily consumption of 32m litres of PMS, 10m litres of Ago and 8m litres of DPK (alongside lesser amounts of LPG and other fuels), mixed output from the 4 refineries equalled only 9% of the PMS, 24% of the DPK and 28% of the Ago, in response to the NNPC.

Refining for Export
The spate of greenfield refinery tasks at the moment on the desk, though they could not much cut back the country’s import invoice for refined gas, will nonetheless help to increase Nigeria’s export revenues. In late 2013 Dangote closed the financing on a $9bn refinery venture with deliberate capacity of four hundred,000 bpd. The advanced crude oil july 2015 refinery would also produce 2.75m tonnes of urea and ammonia fertiliser, as effectively 60,000 tonnes of polypropylene a yr under an affiliated project estimated at $1.9bn and a part of the total $9bn mission price. Originally deliberate for the Olokola Free Trade Zone, which Dangote purchased for the venture, the refinery was relocated to the Lekki Free Commerce Zone in 2013. In September 2013 Dangote closed a $3.3bn syndicated mortgage deal with First Bank of Nigeria, United Bank for Africa, Guaranty Belief Financial institution, Customary crude oil july 2015 Chartered, Stanbic IBTC, Zenith Bank, Entry Bank, Ecobank, Fidelity Bank and Rand Merchant Financial institution, with plans to finance the rest through fairness. The company contracted Engineers India to offer engineering, procurement and contracting providers. Once accomplished in 2016, the refinery may have annual manufacturing capacity of 7.68m tonnes of PMS, 5.3m tonnes of diesel, 3.74m tonnes of jet gasoline and kerosene, 210,000 tonnes of LPG and 630,000 tonnes of slurry oil.

The Euro V quality of petrol produced, with lower nitrogen oxides and other pollutants, is of a far greater quality than the Euro III fuel at present bought on the Nigerian market. The refined product will likely be sold on overseas markets, since promoting greater-grade petrol on the native market would require a much higher subsidy to be competitive with current supplies. The NNPC itself is focusing on rehabilitating its current refineries moderately than upgrading their output. “We are taking a look at bettering the quality of refined output in the long run, however the instant problem is to get the refineries working once more, and extra efficiently,” Yusuf told OBG.

The same is true of the Escravos gas-to-liquids venture developed by Chevron, the NNPC and South Africa’s Sasol. Commercialised in June 2014 after a number of delays, the 33,000-bpd facility uses 320m commonplace cu feet of pure gasoline per day to provide high-high quality diesel, kerosene, naphtha and LPG. With 0% sulphur content, these refined merchandise are Euro V compliant and all destined for export, mostly to Europe, even when the facility is eventually expanded to 120,000 bpd in the long term.

Import Substitution

These export-oriented refineries are not the one ones on the table. A number of smaller greenfield initiatives may assist make a dent in Nigeria’s giant gas imports, which carried an associated subsidy of over $6bn in 2013, in line with the Petroleum Product Pricing Regulatory Company. In November 2012 the NRSTF found some 19 refinery licences authorised by the Department of Petroleum Sources (DPR), of which seven have been deemed possible. In the primary quarter of 2014 two extra refinery projects, every with a planned capability of a hundred,000 bpd and both in Lagos State, have been given licences by the DPR. The first, backed by the Mid Oil Refining and Petrochemical Firm, would be primarily based at Ejinrin in Ikorodu and the second, by South Atlantic Petroleum, can be at Badagry. The environmental influence assessments for both are ongoing.

Each tasks, in addition to any others concentrating on the domestic market, would require enactment of the Petroleum Refineries Act, which has been beneath National Meeting consideration since 2012 and is detached from the broader Petroleum Business Invoice also pending. The act would establish a authorized basis for personal buyers to build refineries, in line with BGL, thereby breaking the NNPC’s monopoly on home refining. It would include new local content material requirements, such at the least 75% Nigerian refinery staff. Although progress in rehabilitating Nigeria’s present refineries has been uneven, Dangote’s high-profile initiative to establish a greenfield refinery may present the much-wanted impetus for change, opening the doorways to smaller private refineries that could bridge the domestic refining hole. It will also establish Nigeria as a regional refining centre, with robust impression on the country’s steadiness of funds.